Posted in Politics

Don’t Panic: Clinton is Going to Win

“Donald Trump’s presidency could be a real possibility,” lamented Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager in a fundraising email send out after Clinton’s poll numbers started sliding. News outlets are incessantly reporting that the latest polls reflect a tightening in the race between Trump and Clinton and that one recent CNN/ORC poll showed Trump had taken the lead. Nate Silver, who became famous for applying sabermetrics to politics, today announced that he considers the presidential race “highly competitive.”

In contrast, we hear some in the media reassuring us that now is not the time to panic. Statisticians add their calm, steady voices to the small chorus of writers—such as Jeet Heer at the New Republic and Greg Sargent at the Washington Post—who are trying to soothe us. The scholars behind the Princeton Election Consortium still have the odds at better than 4:1 in favor of Clinton.

Are these writers and scholars who try to pacify the nervous public right? Should we instead listen to the over-simplified headlines, the self-interested campaign operatives, and the morning show pundits?

Did my naming-calling give away my answer?

We should listen to the measured, reasoned arguments of those listed in the former group. Not because they claim some authority with their sophisticated equations—though that is a fine reason. Not even because they average polls together in order to give a big picture view of the race—this is a good reason, too. The best reason to listen to them is that history proves they are right. Continue reading “Don’t Panic: Clinton is Going to Win”

Social Media, Terrorism, Guns, and Trump

This short rant was going to go on Facebook, but I thought my blog was a better forum than my cousin’s Facebook feed.

I’m sick and tired of people downplaying legitimate concern over terrorist attacks because gun crimes are more common or because Donald Trump is a racist. Both those things are true, but the fact that many people fear terrorism isn’t as stupid and racist as memes make it out to be. Continue reading “Social Media, Terrorism, Guns, and Trump”

Posted in Pastries

Donald Trump: The Molotov Candidate

Throughout the 2012 Republican Presidential Primaries, journalists derided Mitt Romney as an unpopular and unlikable candidate. With Romney’s poll numbers hovering around 25 percent, New York Magazine contributor Frank Rich predicted the formation of a “Molotov Party.” This group would, metaphorically, blow up the Republican Party in order to get someone other than the establishment-endorsed Mitt Romney. Republicans were fed up with the “status quo,” he believed, and would choose anyone over the bland insider.

Rich was four years too early. Continue reading “Donald Trump: The Molotov Candidate”