Nate Silver and Cass Sunstein predict that there will be low voter turnout this year. Sunstein estimates that only a bit over half the voting-age population will cast a ballot this year. There are certainly some compelling arguments for Sunstein and Silver’s theory. Trump’s ground game deficit, the decreasing competitiveness of the race, and the lack of enthusiasm among voters are all factors that point to a low-turnout election.
I just logged in, planning to post some lovely photos I took recently. Those will have to wait because wordpress distracted me. They asked me if I’d like to put an app on my blog that will remind US visitors to register to vote. I’ve done it.
“Donald Trump’s presidency could be a real possibility,” lamented Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager in a fundraising email send out after Clinton’s poll numbers started sliding. News outlets are incessantly reporting that the latest polls reflect a tightening in the race between Trump and Clinton and that one recent CNN/ORC poll showed Trump had taken the lead. Nate Silver, who became famous for applying sabermetrics to politics, today announced that he considers the presidential race “highly competitive.”
Are these writers and scholars who try to pacify the nervous public right? Should we instead listen to the over-simplified headlines, the self-interested campaign operatives, and the morning show pundits?
Did my naming-calling give away my answer?
We should listen to the measured, reasoned arguments of those listed in the former group. Not because they claim some authority with their sophisticated equations—though that is a fine reason. Not even because they average polls together in order to give a big picture view of the race—this is a good reason, too. The best reason to listen to them is that history proves they are right.Continue reading “Don’t Panic: Clinton is Going to Win”→
This short rant was going to go on Facebook, but I thought my blog was a better forum than my cousin’s Facebook feed.
I’m sick and tired of people downplaying legitimate concern over terrorist attacks because gun crimes are more common or because Donald Trump is a racist. Both those things are true, but the fact that many people fear terrorism isn’t as stupid and racist as memes make it out to be. Continue reading “Social Media, Terrorism, Guns, and Trump”→
I know this is a bit late; I wrote it in a bit of a hurry and kept meaning to come back and proof read it. I was just going to trash it, but I am rather pleased with some of my points and seeing as Bernie Sanders has not properly dropped out of the race, I’m going to post it anyway. Better late than never, right?
Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders aren’t all that different.
You’ve probably heard that Brexit nearly upon us. For those of you who don’t know, “Brexit” is the silly-sounding term that is being used to describe the British referendum on whether or not to leave the EU. The vote will be on June 23rd, so hopefully we will stop hearing the word “Brexit” very soon! Regardless of the absurdity of the term, Brexit is a serious issue. I don’t have a dog in the fight so I was going to keep quiet. But I can’t any more. (And because I decided to speak out on the eve of voting, I may not be as coherent in my ranting as usual. Sorry!) Continue reading “Why I’d Vote to Remain in the EU”→
The other day at the office I was reading an op ed in the New York Times in which Nate Cohn more or less apologized for the institutional failure that resulted in the media thinking Trump would never be a serious contender for the Republican nomination. He cited various reasons for this oversight from the unusual timetable for voting to the obscene number of candidates to the–apparently inaccurate–assumption that the party decides. Continue reading “They Should Have Asked Us”→
Heard at a physics lecture titled Beyond Beauty: The Predictive Power of Symmetry: “Humans tend to be bored by perfect symmetry but confused by complete asymmetry. Beauty, therefore, is the line between boredom and confusion–or the 2016 presidential candidates.”